Before I get ‘killed’ by yet more of personal messages and e-mails about the latest episode in the ‘telenovela’ between India and Pakistan, well, let me offer you my 3,5 cents.

Might be useful for orientation.

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1.) Pakistani establishment - foremost it's 'deep state' (see: Inter-Service Intelligence, ISI, something like the Pakistan's CIA) - is organising, training, sponsoring and commanding extremist 'Islamist' JIhadism all over the world, and that for decades already. Indeed, the ISI was the first to do so (already back in the 1960s).

If you want clarity in regards of what to think about the ISI, mind the following two facts:

a) Taliban are one of ISI’s 'products'. The ISI created them in 1994, when Afghan warlords it ‘controlled’ went out of control and started fighting each other, thus ruining ISI’s designs for that country…

(Yes, sure, the Taliban are meanwhile at war with Pakistan, but then, sigh, it’s not the first time the Pakistanis have set their own hair on fire by supporting jihadism… and if there are any doubts about this, I recommend reading Afghanistan: the Bear Trap, originally written by the commander of the ISI’s Afghan Bureau in period 1984-1988. That gent is speaking such a clear language, that, actually, that book should promptly silence any simpletons still insisting on such Pakistani PRBS like ‘CIA created the Mujaheddin and the Taliban’, too.)

b) I guess, whoever was alive back then, can recall photos/videos of terror attacks of 9/11? But, have you ever heard of some Ramzi Yousef? Well, Yousef was an ISI-trained jerk from Pakistan who came up with the idea of hijacking passenger airliners and crashing them into selected ‘targets’. And he did so already back in 1992, when he wanted to attack the Philippines, kill the Pope and do few other, similar thingies - by simultaneously hijacking some 12 airliners. Sure, Yousef is meanwhile languishing in some US prison, but there you have it: that’s what the ISI is producing, ‘in series’, and for decades already…

Pakistan has a need to explain its reason of existence. Between others because there are more Muslims ‘still’ living in India than in Pakistan. Pakistan is doing so through explaining how Muslims are oppressed by India and need to be liberated. Correspondingly, it has to train Muslims in fighting the Hindu oppressors.. plus governments of some 20-25 other countries, anywhere from Nigeria in western Africa to the Philippines, obviously…

Point is: the power of that establishment in Pakistan, and that of the ISI, is such that the Pakistan's Minister of Defence can only be described as ‘guarding a parking lot in front of his office’. Perhaps ‘just his own parking spot on that parking lot’… He's simply not in charge of anything else: only doing what’s been ordered to him.

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2.) Correspondingly, the usual 'Western' both-sidism - in style of 'this is a complex and decades-old conflict between arch enemies' and 'this is about borders and Kashmir', as applied by our holly mainstream media (but especially all the possible 'military experts') - is all bull floral. Whenever you hear a report starting with that kind of statements: turn it off. You're only going to get fed idiotic misinformation and cluelessness by somebody who actually has no idea what is going on.

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3.) Indians like to present themselves as 'cool professionals' and whatever, but their politicians and media are almost as hysteric as those of Pakistan, and their top brass of armed forces is so buerocratic and obsessed with 'traditions', ‘methodical approach’, and ‘care’, so obsessed with reacting instead of acting, that it's regularly getting surprised if the Pakistanis deploy some new weapon (and even if it's 'nothing more' than electronic warfare systems jamming radios of Indian fighter jets, not to talk about Chinese-made PL-15 air-to-air missiles).

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So, what happened 'now' (i.e. the last few days) is that the ISI run another jihadist terror attack into India-controlled part of Kashmir, and mass-murdered (at least) some 26 people (apparently, the terrorists lined up the men they’ve identified as ‘Hindu’ and summarily executed them).

The Prime Minister of India then (essentially) cut off the water-supply to Pakistan (i.e. cancelled the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan) and handed the affair to the country's armed forces.

(…in the meantime, the Pakistani Army launched several attacks on Indian Army positions along the ‘Line of Control’ in Kashmir, using anti-tank guided missiles… and, early this morning, the ISI unleashed yet another terror attack…I)

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The last night, the Indian Air Force (IAF) then flew a series of strikes on some 30 jihadist training camps in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and in Pakistan. For this, they've deployed (between others) Rafales, perhaps Mirages, equipped with SCALP-EG missiles (and escorted by their Sukhoi Su-30MKIs): as far as is known, none entered the Pakistani/Pakistan-controlled airspace...

A still from the official Indian briefing about their air strikes on jihadist terror camps in the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir (POK) and in Pakistan.

You can see that briefing here:

The briefing was provided by the Foreign Minister of India, plus Colonel Sophia Quereshi (Indian Army) and Wing Commander Vyomika Singh (IAF). Gauging by experiences from the last ‘bout of fighting’ between India and Pakistan - back in February 2019 - such briefings are usually reliable, even if far from providing ‘all the important details’.

Apparently, the heaviest hit was precisely the camp from which the terror attack that sparked this crisis was launched.

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Official Islamabad reacted by reporting only civilian casualties. Accordingly, ‘26 civilians, including ‘young women and children’ were killed by Indian air strikes - and that by ‘air strikes on mosques, as the official Pakistan is emphasising: what were children and young women doing in mosques in the middle of the night… that’s not explained.

The Western media is faithfully repeating such reports - although, actually, having no trace of clue what's going on, nor the ability to check. Even if any Western journos would be around, be sure: the ISI wouldn’t let them anywhere near any of terrorist camps hit by the Indians (back in 2019, they were cordoning off entire areas around such sites).

After all, according to official Islamabad, there are ‘no terror training camps in Pakistan’…

Actually, and between others, at least two of ISI's top jihadists are meanwhile confirmed as killed.

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Furthermore, official Islamabad first claimed two, then three, and meanwhile five Indian fighter jets as 'shot down' (including, according to the Pakistanis: '3 Rafales, 1 Su-30, 1 MiG-29'). So far, haven't seen any kind of evidence for this: only wreckage of drop tanks, perhaps one (Indian air-to-air) missile, and then a few videos and photos from period 2005-2017... perhaps also from a crash of an IAF jet in 2023...

‘Of course’, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) rushed to publish photos of J-10Cs and JF-17Cs armed with latest Chinese PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles - kind of stipulating 'they've killed lots of IAF fighters by missiles to which the IAF has no pendant'.

A JF-17C of the Pakistan Air Force, as seen armed with (a total of four) PL-15 air-to-air missiles.

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Conclusions:

1.) It's going to take a few days for the 'dust to settle' and at least the most important facts to become known. Thus, take it easy, lean back, drink chay/tea, and keep calm.

2.) No, the ISI’s terror in India and Indian counter-strikes are not going to ‘lead to a nuclear war’. This is ‘usual diplomatic relations’ between India and Pakistan for decades already. If nothing else, mind that India didn’t nuke Islamabad even when this deployed thousands of troops to infiltrate Kashmir, back in 1999…

3.) Gauging by experiences from February 2019, brace for a true ‘sea’ of officially-released Pakistani lies. Including ‘accidentally released’ photos of PAF jets wearing ‘kill markings’ for IAF jets they should have shot down… not to talk about photos of ‘aircraft wreckage left behind by the Indians’, and decorations for PAF officers and other ranks (also those for US Air Force’s airmen serving in Pakistan, if it happens that ‘no Pakistani F-16 was involved, nor shot down’, again…).

4.) A simple matter of fact is that the Pakistani establishment is systematically presenting country’s armed forces as ‘invincible’ for decades already. So much so, it’s hiring Western (especially British) ‘military experts’ to publish favourable articles even in the specialised press. Islamabad is claiming ‘victories’ at every opportunity - so also when losing wars, like it lost in 1971 and 1999, just for example; while, in reality, the PAF is simply never running serious cross-examination of any of its claims, but distributing decorations to the left and right, regardless if there is evidence of success or not.

…which is ‘perfectly OK’ for Pakistan’s friends in, for example, USA, UK and/or Australia, because, you know, the Pakistanis are ‘most-important non-NATO allies’ (quote from certain George W. Bush Jr…. reportedly, a president of the USA, sometimes back in the 2000s… who could ever say…), and flying the ‘holy F-16s’, while those incompetent Indians are flying ‘Russian and French trash’…

5.) Be patient with Indians. No, not because I would be ‘favouring’ them (I do not), but because their politicians and the media are meanwhile in a similar, hysteric overdrive like the Pakistani. Actually, the Indian politicians are usually slow to react, while the armed forces are… well, lets say: ‘bragging a lot less than the Indian public does’.

(Typical example: early this morning, one of mainstream-media instances in New Delhi rushed to ‘confirm’ PAF claims for downing of multiple IAF aircraft - only to then withdraw that report, shortly after…)

6.) Don’t be surprised if New Delhi continues its frienship with Moscow: instead, mind that if the West is so obviously ignoring India’s interests while all the time licking boots of the People’s Republic of China and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, India is simply left without any other choice.

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Ah yes, and: for those with in-depth interest in this conflict, cannot but recommend the book Terror and Response (co-written by a gent that co-wrote the India’s official Strategy for Nuclear Weapons; unsurprisingly, he also wrote a related book, too: Nuclear India).

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‍The text is published with the permission of the author. First published here.

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