‍(Intro by Tom Cooper)

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Good morning everybody!

Of course, except for… meanwhile ‘growing an extra eye’ for the brawl in West Asia/Middle East, both Don and me are keeping a watchful eye on what’s up in the ‘sideshow about which nobody cares’: the War in Ukraine. Indeed, which, lately, appears ‘not worth attention’ of the mainstream media.

As for what’s going on there: essentially, Glavcom Syrsky remains the General of Fantastic news. Therefore, since late January, he’s trying to prevent the Russia’s expected spring offensive by counterattacking in the south - and doing so, primarily, by chopping various of ZSU units to pieces.

Now, sure: the ZSU has recovered some 400 square kilometres in the Oleksandrivka- and Hulayipole areas of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (at least according to claims by the GenStab), and, sure, the ZSU is also claiming to have caused 4,840 casualties to the VSRF in a matter of only three days. The situation has reached the point where the Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka were first threatening the flank, and are meanwhile threatening the rear of Pudding’s 5th Combined Arms Army (CAA). Therefore, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have started committing their operational reserves there.

However: the General of Fantastic news remains advice- and reform resistant. Not only that several of counterattacks have resulted in costly failures for the ZSU, but whatever achievement the Ukrainians have managed, this came at the usual price: continued fracturing of remaining brigades and battalions for the purpose of patching up the frontline: re-deploying their elements on entirely different sectors, resulting in overall weakening of the ZSU. Even more so considering that the majority of Ukrainian troops - and the majority of their officers - remain as poorly trained as through most of 2023-2025, and Syrsky’s militias of toy soldiers remain as poorly coordinated as ever. With the net result that, while the ZSU’s UAV-operators are meanwhile excelling on tactical plan, the entire army remains disorganised already at the operational level (I’ll not even try going into the strategic one).

Unsurprisingly, no matter what the Ukrainians have done to them, on 17 March, the Russians have launched their spring offensive. Exploiting dense fog, they began infiltrating their assault groups in the Dobropilia, Pokrovsk, and Hulaipole sectors. That’s what then ‘enabled’ the Ukrainians to cause such heavy losses to them and, at least according to official Kyiv, achieve this without losing a single position - which, as should be known after more than four years of this brawl, is all that matters. To the Glavcom and to his King of Social Media Wars, Zelensky.

One thing that is notably different than at earlier times is the relative quality of the Ukrainian campaign of strikes on targets both behind the Russian lines and into Russia. Alone monitoring their claims for destroyed enemy air defence equipment of the last few days and weeks is making it clear that they’re meanwhile excelling in detecting, tracking, targeting and knocking out the stuff like Pantsyrs and Buks - and then at the pace even the Russian industry can’t match any more.

Me thinks, this - and not the state of Pudding’s oil/gas industry and exports (which, thanks to help from Pudding’s business-buddies IQ47 and Babe: is on the best way of recovery) - is what one needs to track.

Why?

Because of the backgrounds of the new Ukrainian Minister of Defence, and because he’s made it clear already shortly after assuming his position, about two months ago, that - also due to the fact that 2 million Ukrainians are avoiding being drafted and some 200,000 (+) are ‘absent without a leave’ - essentially he intends to replace ‘troops’ by robots and convert this one into a war of UAVs and robots.

Why is that important?

Oh, that’s simple: if the Russians cannot continue rebuilding their air defences, they’ll get hit ever harder. And even if the Ukrainian campaign of long-range strikes is still run by five or six different branches and targeting five or six different types of targets and conducted in entirely uncoordinated fashion… well, alone because of the growing shortage of Russian air defences, this must bear fruits. Even if ‘rather later than sooner’. Read: one way or the other, in the long term, that’s certainly going to have effects upon the VSRF’s capability to continue waging offensive operations.

…the question is only: ‘when’…?

In the meantime, the Russians are going to remain capable of keeping Ukraine under massive pressure and are going to continue demolishing its infrastructure - if by no other means, then by continuing to stream some 100-150 attack-UAVs over Ukraine every single night, occasionally in combination with heavier stuff (like ballistic- and cruise missiles). In this regards, there is simply no solution in sight, and - contrary to Zele’s hopes - no provision of advisors to Saudi Arabia, UAE, USA etc., is ever going to change this. Fact remains: nobody, ‘not even the EU’ has taken any kind of measures towards defeating Pudding. Only towards helping Ukraine remain afloat.

That’s not going to change any time soon - if ever, with which we’re back to the same old story like for the last four years.

Over to Don.

Kupiansk

The 14th Brigade destroyed 2 MT-LBs, 11 quad bikes while killing 18 and wounding 5 near Petropavlivka.

Ukrainians clear houses south of Kupiansk.

A junior lieutenant was part of a combined arms assault team that cleared out a company of Russians north of Kupiansk. Some Columbian teammates died. He almost lost his leg but a Brazilian carried him on his shoulders 5.5 km to an evacuation point.

The Russians say their troops in the Central District Hospital were eliminated. Russia conducted an airstrike west of Kupiansk.

Lyman

The 66th Brigade destroyed 20 vehicles and killed 50 Russians. If Russia advances across the 7 km between Shandryholove and Yarove they will reach the Siverskyi Donetsk river and create a pocket around Lyman.

The 3rd Brigade expends two kamikaze ground drones on one building north of Novoselivka. Ukraine was aware of Russian plans to attack and prepared the battlefield with remotely placed mines. When the attack came, drones destroyed 2 tanks, 5 APCs, 7 BMPs and over 40 ATVs. The Kraken attacked Russian targets in and around Novoselivka.

Ukraine bombs Torske. Russia bombs a bridge over the Oskil river 7 km northwest of Krymky.

On a very windy day that grounded most drones, the Russians built a bridge near Nevska. At least 5 tanks, 3 BMPs and an SPG crossed it over three days.

Sloviansk

The sector remains unstable, in part, because Russian attacks are intensifying, and Russian forces are slowly advancing within 15 km of Kramatorsk.

The 81st Airmobile Brigade stops an assault in Zakitne led by an MT-LB.

Russians throw a bomb into a building in Riznykivka.

The 425th Skala Regiment has subunits at multiple locations. At 0:50 of this video, they take a prisoner in Minkivka.

Kostiantynivka

The attacks on the city are increasing and Ukrainian vehicles and ground drones (UGVs) are being hit by Russian drones.

The 93rd Brigade worked with Lasar’s Group and the Phoenix border guard unit to kill 40 Russians in 24 hours. The sector remains unstable and Russian forces are slowly advancing within 15 km of Kramatorsk.

Russian assault Ladas are destroyed.

A Russian drone hit a civilian vehicle evacuating inhabitants from Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka.

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This text is published with the permission of the author. First published here.