Denial, bargaining, acceptance - it took the occupiers two months to acknowledge the reality that Crimeans have had to live with since the summer. Gasoline on the peninsula first began to rise sharply in price, and then disappeared altogether. And only this week did Sevastopol Gauleiter Razvozhayev, the head of the occupation government Gotsanyuk, and finally the head of Crimea Aksyonov admit that there is no fuel due to "a decline in production at oil refineries." The occupiers did not explain why Russian oil refineries had reduced production - admitting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone attacks would be another level of acceptance. Instead, they promised that the shortage would be overcome and advised Crimeans not to stockpile gasoline, which made it clear that things were bad.

Back in August, a shadow fuel market formed on the peninsula. Gasoline vouchers for companies that paid for it in advance became a hot commodity. After all, these advance payments must be redeemed before the fuel can be released for free sale. Therefore, some sales representatives have already made a good profit by putting their saved coupons up for sale on the internet. They sell out instantly. Under such conditions, the rapid rise in gasoline prices - which have increased by a third since June - no longer scares anyone.

"Before the big war, I remember several times when gas stations raised prices by a few cents and there was immediate outrage, complaints to the authorities, and the antitrust committee got involved... And now it jumps by five rubles a day, and for some reason no one complains to anyone. No matter who I ask, they say we have to be patient. They've taught us to be patient, in short," complains Ilya, a distributor of agricultural products from the Dzhankoy district.

More expensive, but... worse. All Crimeans surveyed by CEMAAT without exception talk about a sharp decline in fuel quality. "Fuel consumption has increased. I used to need 9 liters per 100 km, now it's 12-13. And the power has dropped noticeably. You press the gas pedal, and it hardly accelerates, as if the gasoline is completely diluted. I'm waiting for the engine to start having problems because of this," says car owner Nariman from Sudak.

Many Crimeans who did not use public transport because they had their own cars have once again turned to trolleybuses and minibuses. As a result, they are overcrowded, and taxis may not even arrive despite the promised double pay: taxi drivers are also suffering from the gasoline shortage.

Food prices in the markets have risen in proportion to fuel prices. Prices for meat and vegetables have increased by 20-30 percent. Farmers justify this by saying that greed has nothing to do with it, as all the profits go towards delivering goods to the city.

This is just the beginning, economists say. They add that the occupiers' acknowledgment of the problem only increases fears.

"There is such a thing as inflationary expectations. They are factored into the price of goods. They influence investment decisions... In short, they are an important factor that must be constantly taken into account. Aksyonov's statement has only reinforced our most negative inflation expectations," an economist at one of Crimea's agricultural holdings told CEMAAT.

The occupation officials do not expect any improvement either. "If those at the top assure us that the disruptions will be eliminated, it would also be good to understand whether we should expect prices to roll back. Or to include all the costs of enterprises due to the one-third increase in fuel prices in next year's budgets. The difference will be in the millions. And there are no specifics yet," an employee of the financial department of one of the district administrations of Crimea told us on condition of anonymity.

Ordinary Crimeans are certain that prices will not return to previous levels. And few believe in the "elimination of temporary disruptions." They prefer not to think about how to live in conditions of permanent fuel shortages.

"People here have learned to live with the situation as it is; it is no longer customary to think about the future. And there is no point in doing so," said one Crimean Tatar activist, explaining his fellow countrymen's attitude to the problem.

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