Hello everybody!

Having found a few minutes of time, here are a few recommendations for how to monitor the war caused by the US-Israeli aggression on Iran.

The idea for this aggression was rather simplistic.

The Israelis have convinced - or even blackmailed (see Epstein Affairs) - IQ47 into ‘joining’ their strikes on Iran. What they seem to have told him was to strike Iran jointly, kill the regime, thus encourage the Iranians to rise and topple what’s left of the same. The expected result was that this would have been enough. It didn’t work because the IRGC-regime was preparing for precisely such an eventuality. Thus, the Israelis an ‘decapitate’ as much as they like: there’s always a replacement figure in waiting.

Moreover, the Iranian air defences have proven a tougher nut to crack than expected. Nah, not because these would consist of ‘Chinese HQ-9s’ or ‘Russian -300PMUs’, as widely erred (see the nonsense spread starting with the NYT, the last two days), but because their backbone is a wide range of systems researched & developed by the PR Chinese, but on Iranian requirements, and made in Iran. Unsurprisingly, very few of things that really matter - which would be such long-range systems like Bavar-373 and Mehran - have been hit and\or knocked out.

At least not before these started running out of missiles, this weekend. Is also unsurprising: just like the US-Israelis, the Iranians have no endless stocks of ‘interceptors’ (i.e. surface-to-air- and anti-ballistic-missiles). That said, the mass of the Iranian medium- and short-range SAMs remains operational, which is why

a) most of airspace over central Iran remains off-limits even for F-22s and F-35s, and

b) except over western and southern Iran, the US-Israelis are heavily dependent on the deployment of air-launched cruise missiles (Israelis), as discussed here:

…or, elsewhere, on the deployment of air- and sea-launched cruise missiles (USA). It is only outside the zone roughly) including Karaj, Khorramabad, Tehran, Seman, Qom, Shiraz and Esfahan) that they are free to deploy other weapons (like GBU-31 JDAMs, for example).

Inside one of IRGC’s self-styled missile cities, showing stored Khazbar Shekan or Fatteh missiles, stacked along the walls.

Even if, the US-Israelis also have a problem with what the IRGC is terming its ‘Missile Cities’. Classic ‘bunker busters’ deployed by the US-Israelis are such like BLU-109:

The Iranians have launched the construction of the first of their missile cities two years after BLU-109s have entered service. Therefore they’ve adjusted their design, and constructed their underground facilities so that these are ‘under’ the maximum reach of the BLU-109. The weapon simply can’t drill deep enough in order to reach and penetrate one of Iranian tunnels with missiles. See; the most the US-Israelis can do is to target their entrances, aiming to block these for ‘traffic’ by Iranian transporter-erector launchers. As much as GPS-assisted and thus very precise, the BLU-109 is a free-fall weapon. It’s max range is around 40km. Thus, alone deploying it to hit one of Iranian missile cities can only work if the US-Israelis have the necessary freedom of operations to get close enough. So far, that was rarely the case.

A TEL with Shahab=3 intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM).

This conclusion is on hand also from the deployment of B-52 bombers of the US Air Force, armed with AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles with ‘bunker-buster’ capability, the last Friday and Saturday; these were necessary to attempt oversaturating the Iranian air defences, while still enabling at least a few weapons to reach their targets. Photos like the one below are proving it: the Iranians ‘still’ shot down ‘at least some’ of AGM-158s.

…and then went on to continue lobbing their IRBMs and MRBMs at Israel.

….which is bringing me to the topic of Iranian strikes - on Israel, but also on US-bases in Turkey, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman.

Whatever are IQ47 and Baby Netanyahu explaining, the combination of the ferocity and precision of Iranian missile- and UAV-strikes has taken both the USA and Israel, and the US-Israeli allies in the Persian Gulf by surprise. While the US & Israel can’t stop babbling how the ‘Iranians are targeting civilians’, actually, the IRGC is targeting objects like the IDF intelligence gathering post and radar station at Mount Meron, Ramat David AB, intelligence headquarters in northern Tel Aviv (Mossad & Unit 8200), Ministry of Defence in Tel Aviv, Sdot Micha AB (primary base of the Israeli ballistic missile arsenal: that missile missed and hit Bet Shemesh instead), Ben Gurion IAP (housing the mass of USAF tanker aircraft that are supporting the Israeli air strikes), and Nevatim AB (Israel’s primary F-35-base). Indeed, RUMINT has it that since Sunday, 28 February, Baby is spending most of his time aboard the Zion 1 - the Israel’s equivalent to ‘Air Force One’ of the USAF - because the Iranians launched an outright manhunt for him, and have targeted his heavily fortified underground office, too.

Furthermore, the Iranians have knocked out one of major US radars in Jordan (indeed: they have destroyed most of the THAAD site deployed there: if that was a ‘civilian’ object, then I guess the site was used as a decoration for a pool party, or something…?), three in UAE, one if Qatar, and one in Bahrain. The IRGC thus ‘blinded’ its opponnents, forcing them to fly many more additional combat air patrol along the verges of the Iranian airspace, than planned.

Additionally to this, and although having not only their top political leadership shot away, but also their communications and control system heavily damaged by US-Israeli air strikes, the Iranians have proven capable of tracking down numerous US intelligence nodes. That’s why and how, and between others, they also attacked not only local CIA-headquarters, but also hotels in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE where US intelligence- and military personnel were berthed.

This hotel in Manama Bahrain, was targeted by the IRGC because it was housing US military personnel evacuated from the local US military base.

Now, the US media is claiming that it’s ‘Russia that’s supplying that intelligence’. Sorry, not buying anything of that. As much as they would certainly like to extract some sort of revenge for what the USA and its European allies are doing, or (in the US-case) used to do in Ukraine, not only that the FSB and the GRU are lacking the necessary equipment (especially such reconnaissance satellites like operated by the PR China), but they were primarily busy tracking exiled Russian mafia-bosses around Tel Aviv and the activity or the Russian expats around places like what the Russians like to call the ‘Dubaigrad’. On the contrary, the Iranians have both their own field intel teams deployed in all the Arab countries and hundreds of local informants. Moreover, and contrary to the PR Chinese, the Russians have no field teams deployed with the IRGC in Iran. This means: there’s no established protocol to exchange intel in real ime. Finally, have explained this already several times o this blog: not only were the Russians screwing up every single of their ‘major arms deals’ with Iran of the last 25 years (see belated delivery of S-300s, no delivery of Su-35s as just two out of hundreds of examples), but the Iranians do not trust the Russians, nor have Moscow and Tehran anything as tight cooperation as Beijing and Tehran do.

…of course, this shouldn’t mean the Russians dislike the ill-informed US-American media now complaining about them, and half the social media ‘sharing’ the resulting misinformation: idiocracy is as good for the Russian intel services, as it is for those in the USA, Israel, and Iran.

That’s about what’s coming to my mind right away. I’ll see to come up with analsys of different other details as soon as I can.

For the time being, let me just conclude the obvious: IQ47/Baby’s 3-Day Special Military Operation went horribly wrong, and now we’re all going to pay its bill - at least on petrol stations, if not through our bills for heating this winter. IQ47’s and Baby’s buddies, though, are going to cash handsomely. Thus, what they’ve caused is none of their problem.

‍This text is published with the permission of the author. First published here.

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