(Intro by Tom Cooper)

Hello everybody!

Here we are: the second ‘roll up’ on developments in the War in Ukraine of this year.

I’ll shamelessly admit: the last week, it was the developments in Iran and Syria that have attracted most of my attention. Between others, because I know all too well: Fedorov can’t sort out the bardak officially titled the ‘Ministry of Defence of Ukraine’ in a matter of ‘hours’ or ‘days’ since being appoointed the new MOD: that’s going to take him more than ‘few weeks’, even ‘months’ - especially considering Syrsky is still the Glavcom. And what do I think about Syrsky and his Buddies… well, if you don’t know that by now, you never will…

Those who know a bit about my history in research & publishing are unlikely to be surprised I’ve found it ‘slightly more interesting’ to watch the (new) Syrian Arab Army kicking the US/West-supported terrorists of the PKK/PYD/YPG-conglomerate out of the Sheikh Maqsood District of Aleppo (after these had fun with snipping and mortaring civilians around the city). And the US/West-supported terrorists then ‘retaliating’ in the only way terrorists know: by striking selected apartment- and administration buildings by UAVs. At least as ‘interesting’ was to monitor the progress of mass demonstrations in Iran, where the IRGC-regime brought in hordes of clueless thugs of the Katayib Hezbollah from Iraq (Katayib Hezbollah = essentially, ‘Hezbollah, Iraq Branch’) to mass-murder up to 5,000-, some say up to 6,000 of Iranian civilians protesting for freedom and justice. In cold blood.

(For anybody considering that ‘not really military-related affairs’: please mind that the IRGC-regime merely repeated the exercise of the Soviet regime from Hungary of 1956, or Czechoslovakia of 1968, and of the Russian regime in Ukraine of our days, as well as of the Chinese Communist regime of 1989, when bringing troops from the Inner Mongolia - i.e. ‘from somewhere far away’ - to smash the protests at the Tienanmen Square… that is ‘military affairs’, and very much so; certainly no ‘chronic’.)

Additionally, have kept an eye on the continued Israeli genocide of Palestinians - in form of violations of the ‘cease-fire’ in the Gaza Strip through renewed aerial- and artillery bombardments - and intensified ethnic cleansing of the West Bank. Plus the UAE-Israel-Russia instigated genocide in Sudan….

As a result of all of this, right now I haven’t got that much to comment about Ukraine.

If you still need my assessment, though: the fact remains (explanations for plenty of new readers are added in brackets) that especially the Glavcom (Syrsky) and his Bardak-Buddies (the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces) have no clue about strategy, no interest in re-training and re-organising the ZSU (Ukrainian Armed Forces), and therefore no solutions for how to get things moving in this war, and finding a viable outcome for it. In these disciplines, they’re meanwhile nearly outmatching the Keystone Cops in Moscow (the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces) - with the principal difference that ‘even’ the latter have started getting real and learning their lessons. Just the Ukrainians not. Unless that changes - unless Syrsky & Bardak-Buddies are out for good - there are going to be no fundamental changes in this war.

Thus, actually, there is ‘little’ to monitor in Ukraine and Russia. Of course, except for the continuous PRBS-warfare on Zele’s behalf, the steady degeneration of the ZSU, and the daily diet of massacring both civilians behind the ‘frontlines’ and the troops along the same - principally by missiles and UAVs, and, usually, in form of haphazardly-organised and run ‘missile/drone campaigns’…

From my POV, that is ‘bordering on no military affairs’: it’s little else but plain military dilettantism and systemic incompetence (arguably: ‘of historic proportions’). Two bunches of uniformed idiots pretending they are grand military strategists. And, hand on heart: after explaining this to the length, again and again, over the last two years alone, that’s not only getting ‘boring’ or ‘frustrating’, but demotivating, too.

Over to Don.

Sumy

Russia first occupied Kindrativka and Andriivka in June of last year. Ukrainian counterattacks took Andriivka back that same month and liberated Kindrativka in July. Those counterattacks stopped the Russian advance and the lines became stable. Both sides reduced the number units they deployed in the Sumy sector. The Russians now have about half as many units.

The Glavcom has withdrawn several units from this sector (including the, meanwhile disbanded, Foreign Legion), so he can convert them into his Toy Soldiers, and continue fighting PR-battles ‘for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad’… Other units removed from this sector included the 79th and 95th Air Assault brigades, the 225th Assault Regiment and the 49th Assault Battalion. The 78th Air Assault and 71st Jager Infantry regiments, 1st Heavy Mechanized and 116th Mechanized brigades were among the units left in place. Alas, they’re too little to hold the line.

Unsurprisingly, while intensity of the Russian attacks isn’t as high as it was last summer, the Russians did start making small advances in the middle of December and re-occupied Andriivka the last week.

Vovchansk

There was no reported activity near the village of Lyman. There were heavy bombardments near Starytsia and Vovchanski Khutory, but the reported infantry activity was confined to southern Vovchansk.

Kupiansk

It’s not only that ‘here are still Russians in downtown Kupiansk’: there are both Russian troops and African volunteers/mercenaries serving for the VSRF there. In this video, Russian soldiers venture into the open to collect snow in buckets. This is because they are short on food and water and aren’t being sufficiently supplied by drones. If the Russians were smart, or at least decently trained, they would have travelled within the building to exit at some point far from where they were living. That way any Ukrainian strikes might land further away from them. They probably did not do that. They are observed and three Ukrainian airstrikes and a drone strike follows.

More Russians are caught trying to move into Kiupiansk.

The front lines have been thin for a couple years now and Ukraine is dependent on drones to provide observation and a large part of the attacks. When bad weather obscures observation or prevents drones from flying, Ukraine is vulnerable. Two Russians with flags were able to penetrate 9 km past the front lines. Russia has been trying to assault through Pishchane for several months - and now, because of this infiltration, lots of Russians are drawing maps showing them ‘in control’ of the entire area from north of Pishchane all the way to Podoly…

Of course, if the local ZSU commanders do not react to this infiltration quickly enough, and neutralise the infiltrators before these can entrench themselves, the Russians are going to create yet another cauldron - this time around ZSU troops still holding out north-east and east of Kupyansk…

Lyman

The Ukrainian side of this sector remains porous. The results are regularly uggly to watch. Russian infiltrations are deep and most of them are eliminated, but the risk remain exceptionally high.

The 3rd Brigade loads a ground drone with 12 AT mines and drives it into a Russian-occupied school building in Rodkodub.

A Russian advanced 10 km before he died in Lozove. Russians in Yarova. Russians in Oleksandrivka. Ukrainians celebrate pushing Russian infiltrators out of Dibrova.

Kostiantynivka

The Russians made their - meanthile: ‘usual’ - ‘small’ advances at Markove and Rusyn Yar. The territory south of the Reservoir is finally confirmed as Russian-occupied. Russian infiltration-operations continue.

A drone attacks a Russian soldier inside an industrial building by Stupochky.

A Ukrainian is taken prisoner. With two Ukrainians dead on the ground, two unarmed Ukrainians run before being shot.

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This text is published with the permission of the author. First published here.