(Intro by Tom Cooper)

Hello everybody!

Turns out, ZSU’s ‘major success’ in Kupyansk became possible because the Ukrainians have discovered a pipe used by the Russians to infiltrate the town and bring in supplies, then destroyed the same at multiple points. And, so far, the ‘evidence of success’ is a single video showing ZSU troops in the part of the town immediately north of the centre….

OK, lets remain patient, keep on waiting: we’re certainly going to see.

Who is not waiting to see is Syrsky & Buddies.

They’re already ‘striking back’ - via somebody who’s respected for his earlier reporting - and against Drapaty.

You know: it doesn’t matter what general is commanding this operation - the one for liberation of Kupyansk - now (i.e.: since 17 October). The only thing that matters are colonels commanding different of diverse battalions, and diligently losing this battle since months. It’s more important to emphasise how ‘they have had the Russians totally surrounded’ in November. Because, you know, when the Russians enter some town, and take it, and the Ukrainians then fall back into the trenches around that town, then it’s the Russians who are ‘surrounded’… Pure, distilled military logic, isn’t it?

Ignore the fact that this is a de-facto admission that the Russians have taken Kupyansk in November, precisely the way Kuzovlev has claimed: nah, that’s unimportant. What is important is to point out how successful were those ZSU officers who permitted the Russians to do so.

But, and above all, it’s of crucial importance to end this terrible advertising for Drapaty. Imagine somebody calculating 1+1 and realising the result is 2! Like: Slobozhan/Slobozhansk Offensive in September 2022 + stabilisation of Pokrovsk + recovery of Kupyansk… oh my! It could turn out somebody realises Drapaty is outmatching Syrsky’s skills as an effective military commander!

Stop that! Right now! Awful! Blasphemy! That witch belongs being burned at the stake…

…I mean: how dares anybody pointing out the guy was first sent to Pokrovsk, and has stabilised the situation there, back in July-August-September this year, before being sent to Kupyansk (so Syrsky can successfully lose Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad?), has stabilised the situation there, and is now winning? Pfuy! Instead, point out there is a (part of the) 425th Assault Regiment (Syrsky’s Toy Soldiers) involved in Kupyansk: who cares about the 1st NG Brigade, the 14th, the 30th and/or the 116th Mech and bits and pieces of few other units…

Sounds like a ‘rant’? Oh, my dear: that’s, actually, the only way left to seriously analyse this ground war. Because, that’s influencing the flow of every single battle; because the conclusion is unavoidable that

a) already since 2022, the Russians are advancing in any sector where Syrsky’s micormanaging, and there’s no Drapaty’s command influence;

b) the Russians are stopped anywhere where Drapaty has a word (or more) to say; and (and just for example),

c) it turns out the ZSU actually can run effective, well-coordinated counterattacks wherever Drapaty has the say, but not the least if Syrsky & Buddies are in command…

…which, of course, is bad for Syrs…. erm… ‘Ukraine’, you know, and therefore absolutely irrelevant for the ZSU’s conduct of military operations. Indeed: drawing conclusions of this kind and explaining this in the public is ‘ranting’ & ‘dooming’. Definitely ‘cynical’, rather than ‘analytical’. And, it detracts from the strength of the argument, too…

Meh… lets quickly forget all of this. Lets ‘return’ to analysing the air war instead. Because, you know, air wars are things depending on physical laws and thus cannot be influenced by incompetence or corruption…

And so, and as explained in reaction to a reader’s comment, a day or so ago: if, dear and esteemed reader, you are - like so many others, including your very own (probably the Russians, too) - confused by the Ukrainians shooting their long-range UAVs all over western Russia, from St Petersburg in the north to Chechnya in the south, targeting refineries one day or week, factories the other-, then whatever else the third, and so on… without any kind of system, and you want to understand this, then you can do so only through serious analysis of military affairs.

Yes. It’s such serious and sober - by no means cynical - analysis that, if you then dig deep enough, you can’t avoid finding out that,

• the GenStab-U has its own targeting list;
• the NKV… erm… GUR/HUR has its own targeting list;
• the SBU has its own targeting list;
• the Border Guards are having their own targeting list…

…and all of these targeting lists are absolutely unrelated. There’s zero (in digits: 0) coordination between them. Actually, targets are selected at the discretion of generals commanding services in question, and then, usually, because behind every single of these efforts there is a different system of embezzlement. I.e. corruption. I.e. somebody there is, de-facto, paying this or that service to destroy this or that target.

For purely military reasons, of course…

Slava Ukraini…

…and over to Don.

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Sumy

Russia is increasingly using ground drones. These two were destroyed one and three kilometers from the front lines by the 116th TD and 47th Mech Brigades.

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Vovchansk

After being stable for a year, since July this year, the Vovchansk sector has seen slow Russian advancement. Kharkiv is Ukraine’s second largest city with a population of 1.4 million. It is 41 km from the village of Symynivka, just south of Vovchansk. This is a long distance, of course, but Pokrovsk is 41 km from Avdiivka. If Ukraine wants to save Kharkiv, they need to start now.

Russians strike southern Vilcha with at least 20 bombs, while Ukrainian drones hunt targets in northern Vilcha and southern Vovchansk. The Russians had an extensive presence in southern Lyman, as evidenced by the drone attacks.

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Kupiansk

The Russian commander of the western operational group reported to Putin that Kupiansk was in Russian control.

At the end of April, the 429th Achilles Drone Regiment started fighting in Kupiansk and attacking the Russians moving south into the city and mining the paths. They discovered Russia was using a sewer pipe to infiltrate and used three tons of explosives to destroy it. They destroyed 8 artillery pieces and damaged 146. They also used their drones to deliver 8 tons of food, medicine, equipment, clothing, generators and fuel. From April to December, they killed 998 Russians and wounded 879.

The 2nd Corps, led by portions of the Khartia brigade, formed a task force in September with elements of the 475th Assault Regiment, 92nd Assault Brigade, the 127th TD Brigade and the 144th Mechanized Brigade. Some of their assaults failed, which the Russian published, and some of them succeeded, which no one published.

From September 22 to December 12, the 2nd Corps reported that 1,027 Russians were killed, 291 were wounded and 13 were captured. Many of those were killed trying to move into the city.

Russian attempts to regain entry into the city are being repulsed. There are still Russians inside the city.

Point is: since the flow of Russians into the city was cut off by the destruction of that pipe, the Russians inside Kupiansk are losing. Any of the estimated 200 Russians that are found in the city are attacked. In turn, the Russians shot two civilians.

A drone looks for Russians inside buildings. Clearing buildings with infantry is tedious and you never know if you’ll find the enemy or a cat.

Zelensky made an appearance on the outskirts of the city, about a kilometer from where elements of the 425th Skala Regiment were clearing out Russian troops.

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Lyman

A drone flushes Russian infantry from a basement in Karpivka and infantry finish them off. Drones of the 3rd Corps hit a variety of targets.

Lyman is bombed and rocketed.

The Ukrainian lines are so thin that a Russian made it 7 km from the front lines before he was detected west of Yarova.

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Siversk

After a massive thermobaric bombardment, Russian forces flooded Siversk with flags.

Ten Russians in a schoolhouse were attacked by drones and an antitank mine inside Sviato-Pokrovske. It remains in the gray zone for now but Russians have been entering it for three weeks.

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This text is published with the permission of the author. First published here.