The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdoğan's likely rival in the upcoming presidential election, did not yield the expected results for the Turkish authorities. The public was not convinced that Imamoglu was corrupt, and the ratings of the Republican People's Party, which became the most popular force in Turkey according to the results of the 2024 local elections, did not fall. However, there was no sharp increase either. Everyone remained “in their place.” Average weighted measurements from dozens of social services indicate that the RPP has up to 35% support, while the Justice and Development Party of Erdoğan has around 30%. However, the nationalists are on the side of the government, with 5-6% support. Recently, the Kurds have been drifting towards the government, and they are the third most powerful force, with 10% support.

Ekrem Imamoglu, the arrested mayor of Istanbul

In such an electoral situation, the Turkish leader is considering how to remain in power, and he has three options to choose from:

Hold out until the next elections in 2028, but there is currently no guarantee that he will be able to run for a fourth term, as this would require a constitutional amendment, and the 400 votes needed in parliament have not yet been found.

Nominate someone else in his place. Three names were considered: his son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar, known for his drones; his son Bilal Erdoğan, who is very unpopular even among the ruling party's voters; and the current speaker of the Grand National Assembly, Numan Kurtulmuş. Previously, there was talk of another son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, who twice headed the Ministry of Finance, but this son-in-law has long since disappeared from the list of Erdoğan's heirs. In general, the option of replacing him in the team is probably no longer acceptable to the Turkish president, whose entourage is convincing him that the leader must remain.

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From left to right: Selçuk Bayraktar, son-in-law; Bilal Erdoğan, son; Berat Albayrak, son-in-law.

The third option involves early elections, which will be announced by parliament. The government has a majority for this, and a parliamentary decision is only formally required to comply with the 2018 Constitution. Since then, the parliament and president in the country have been elected simultaneously. If the Mejlis dissolves itself and wants new elections, the president becomes the aggrieved party, and his term is considered unfulfilled, allowing him to run for re-election. Constitutionalists criticized this provision at the draft stage because it looks like a scheme that allows the president, with a controlled parliament, to call new elections shortly before the end of his term and endlessly “reset” his presidential term. Thus, the provision limiting power to two terms becomes a formality, because the second term cannot be fulfilled in any way.

However, it was logical to apply this scheme a year before the next elections. But the rise in the opposition's ratings and its victory in most municipalities in 2024 frightened the authorities. Numerous changes to the laws that limited the powers of mayors and transferred them to ministries did not help Erdoğan either. Annual reports continued to show that opposition mayors were the most effective in all studies, even with their curtailed powers.

Political rumors over the past month have revolved around the possibility of unexpected early elections this fall, but Erdoğan needs a crushing defeat of the opposition if he cannot achieve a convincing victory himself. The technique of weakening opponents involves financially and organizationally bleeding Atatürk's party dry, both from the bottom up and from the top down.

The bottom-up approach was launched with a series of arrests in Istanbul. It began on October 30, 2024, with the mayor of the Istanbul district of Esenyurt, Ahmet Ozer. Next were two more Istanbul mayors — Riza Akpolat, who headed Beşiktaş, and Alaattin Köseler, the leader of Beylikdüzü. On March 19, the mayor of Greater Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, was detained, which led to millions of protests across the country, which the authorities dispersed with arrests. Istanbul continues to be purged. The opposition controlled 25 of the city's 39 districts. So far, the authorities have arrested eight people, or one-third of all elected local officials in Istanbul.

Recently, operations began in the country's third-largest city, Izmir. Erdoğan's party has never won in this radically secular region, so the blow was not directed at the current mayor, but at his predecessor, Soyer Tunç. Dozens of city hall employees and company executives were detained along with him. Those who won tenders from city halls controlled by the opposition. This is precisely Erdoğan's goal: to send a signal to businesses that cooperation with the opposition could spell the beginning of the end.

Soyer Tunç, former mayor of Izmir

Today's arrest of three more mayors demonstrates that the success of the Istanbul crackdown can be scaled up to the whole country. Antalya is a region that makes money from tourism and tomatoes. Adana is a city that is nationalist in its views, but for the last 15 years has always voted against the government's candidates. And finally, there is the small town of Adiyaman. The arrest of its mayor is also significant, because Atatürk's party has not won in this southeastern city for almost 50 years. The authorities considered such conservative provinces to be their asset, which they did not need to worry about, but the 2024 local elections came as a shock to Erdoğan, and Adiyaman is a symbol of this defeat, as it showed that there are no guarantees of preservation in any region.

In addition, the authorities launched another storyline aimed at demoralizing the leadership of the opposition party. After losing the parliamentary and presidential elections in May 2023, the RHP held a congress in November. The current leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, lost to the young leader of the CHP faction in the Grand National Assembly, Özgür Özel, who is considered the deputy mayor of Istanbul, İmamoğlu, who cannot lead the party under Turkish law.

And last year, a lawsuit was filed in Turkish courts alleging illegal actions in changing the party leadership. It was filed by the former mayor of the Turkish city of Hatay, Lutfi Savaş, who was expelled from the party. If this lawsuit is upheld, the party leadership elections will be canceled, and the intrigue lies in who will temporarily lead the opposition. Will 75-year-old Kılıçdaroğlu automatically return to the chair, or will the authorities appoint a temporary party leadership through the courts?

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, former leader of the CHP

The most interesting thing is the silence of the former party leader Kılıçdaroğlu on this court case. He only said once that the congress where he lost was legitimate, but then uttered the ambiguous phrase: “I will continue from where I left off.”

The court's decision on the legitimacy of the party congress and the re-election of the CHP leadership was to be announced on June 30. However, the court hearing was postponed until September, which, according to rumors, is when early elections are to be announced. This is another sign that Erdoğan has decided on this option. Imamoglu will not be convicted until the fall, and may even be acquitted later, because the case is falling apart, and even pro-government politicians do not believe in its prospects. However, by changing the party leadership through a court decision, it is possible to ensure that the opposition nominates a more convenient opponent for the authorities in the early elections, such as Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş. And he will lose in a difficult and tense struggle with Erdoğan, because in that case, the Kurds will either ignore the elections or vote for Erdoğan.