The Nobel Peace Prize is the Nobel Prize, but during Trump's previous term, there were exactly two days when even CNN said almost nothing bad about him. April 7, 2017, and April 18, 2018, after the strikes on Syria. The first time was aimed at the Ash Shayrat airbase, the second time - together with allies - on Damascus and Homs. It was done in response to the use of chemical weapons against its own population. Barack Obama had already warned Bashar al-Assad about this American red line, but then proved that his red lines were not worth much more than the paper on which the Budapest Memorandum was written. Therefore, the press reacted rather enthusiastically to the strikes authorized by Trump. Even the liberal one did so. Noting that Congress did not approve these strikes, but what can you do? Even among Democrats in the House of Representatives, there was no unified position: they said that violating the Constitution is, of course, very bad. The lack of a strategy behind one-off strikes is also not good. But how long had it been since this Syrian bastard needed to be shown the true American bastard? It was in the air, like the gray dust that falls in “Stranger Things”: an unusual, unnatural vibe of general approval of the president. Trump couldn't pass this up. He couldn't forget it.

It should be noted that these strikes did not cause any noticeable damage to the Assad regime.

The hawks, who still had a place in the Trump administration at the time, tried to overthrow Nicolas Maduro in 2019, when then-Speaker of Parliament Juan Guaidó declared himself acting president, refusing to recognize the results of the presidential election. The protest led by Guaidó was large and quite promising, if viewed from Washington and wanting to believe in one's own truth without going into details. In the large hall of the Atlantic Council think tank, usually not very crowded, there was nowhere to sit on a winter day in 2019. Someone next to me, in a frenzy of excitement, rolled his eyes and hissed at the cameraman, “Can't you see, history is being made here!” The history was the visit of a special representative of the Venezuelan opposition, who had been unable to take over the embassy for several months because the Maduro regime officials had barricaded themselves inside. The standoff around the embassy lasted until May, and we even filmed it several times. One young Venezuelan woman moved me deeply when she said that we Ukrainians inspired them. She said she had watched Ukraine on Fire. The building was handed over to the opposition in May, and that was perhaps the only thing they managed to achieve. The window of opportunity closed, international attention shifted to more pressing news, the revolution faltered, hundreds of people disappeared without a trace, the opposition split, the embassy was closed in 2023, and Guaidó finally turned into Tikhanovskaya, getting a teaching job in Miami. The unfinished story ended like Eliot's “The Hollow Men”: not with a bang but a whimper, proving once again that tyranny cannot be overthrown by mere desire and a series of rather clumsy actions by people who are completely unprepared to work in the region, while Maduro is supported by experienced Cubans and Russians. 

What is happening in Venezuela now will soon be called different things: the fight against drug trafficking, the fight for democracy, the fight for oil, but I see no reason for Trump to strike Caracas other than an irresistible need to feel immediate bipartisan approval at a visceral level. And also, to regain the respect of the few people whom Trump himself respects abroad. Even in his twisted world, where no one close to him can tell the President of the United States the truth about what is happening on the international stage as a result of his actions, the time has come to understand that he is flushing everything to Putin and Xi. That is why Trump is hitting the weakest of their allies. Without any strategy, as usual. I do not share my colleagues' fears about the final destruction of the world order that emerged after World War II. It was already on its last legs, and this is not the first time the United States has attacked other countries under false pretexts. But I do not believe in the effectiveness of these current strikes, despite reports of Maduro's capture. It immediately gives rise to conspiracy theories about a behind-the-scenes conspiracy, the Witkoff-Dmitriev pact, the exchange of Ukraine, which is more important to Russia, for Venezuela, which is more important to the United States. But taking control of Venezuela is much, much more difficult than capturing Maduro alone. It should not be forgotten that Trump causes the greatest international damage not through action, but through inaction, that is, by withdrawing from projects that arose as a result of the actions of others. By renouncing alliances, agreements, aid, and military presence. He differs from the Republican hawks of the 20th century in his excessive dependence on applause. The flip side of this dependence is the fear of doing anything real. Anything that cannot be undone in two weeks. Destroying what others have built is a win-win strategy because you can always blame your predecessor for the consequences.