Hello everybody!

Whatever one does, should be done thoroughly. But, for things to be done thoroughly, one has to pay attention about details. Figuring out these details is resulting in recognising patterns - which in turn is resulting in figuring out what exactly is going on in one or another war (and that, yes, despite being ‘reduced’ to the state of an ‘armchair warrior’, although having ‘never visited the country’ in question and similar prejudices). Here few examples.

Just like ‘all the roads are leading to Rome’, so also all the ‘roads in this war are leading to the IRGCASF’s ballistic missiles’. As long as the IRGCASF is in possession of a ‘sizeable’ arsenal of ballistic missiles, it

• a) can continue resisting Israel (and the USA), and
• b) threaten Iran’s neighbours, i.e. exercise influence outside Iran’s borders; moreover,
• c) it retains the means to - should it decide to develop nuclear weapons - deliver these, or at least threaten to deliver these, on a target of its choice.

This is as important because… well: as first, combine the IRGCASF’s possession of ballistic missiles with the fact that the IRGCASF continues demonstrating the capability to penetrate US-Israeli air defences. It simply means that its ballistic missiles remain a threat.

For those who might have a problem with understanding (and/or accepting) this fact: for comparison, take a look at Pakistan, last year in May. The country was in a possession of a significant nuclear arsenal, but has proven unable to ‘deliver’ the same upon India, because the Indians were shooting down whatever weaponry the Pakistanis fired at them. Moreover, after demonstrating this for almost three days, the Indians grew fed up to the level where they went over to making it clear to Islamabad that they can also destroy whatever target in Pakistan they want to destroy. By then, the Indians felt so ‘safe’ from Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, that they - between others - targeted the Kirana Hills.

The total, net result was that Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence was none.

Despite four weeks of US-Israeli bombardment of Iran, nothing similar can be said for the IRGCASF’s ballistic missile arsenal. On the contrary.

Although some of them are now bombed for 30 days in succession, the majority of 27 of what the IRGCASF is terming with ‘missile cities’ - those huge underground facilities (several are ‘kilometres long’, literally) - remain intact. As explained already weeks ago, the US-Israeli air strikes cannot penetrate and destroy them. Which is why already towards the end of the first week of this war, the US-Israeli target-selection re-focused on destroying their entrances/exists, ‘instead’: burying these under earth, gravel, and rocks.

The IRGC reacted by using bulldozers to re-open these, which is why the US-Israelis then began targeting bulldozers or (in Esfahan for example) using CBUs to mine approaches to such entrances/exits. Have ‘reported’ about all of this, several times already, and here just another ‘good example’ for this fact, in form of two video-stills released on 27 March:

This is a ‘pre-strike’ photo of one of entrances to the IRGCASF’s Andimeshk missile city (outside Dezful). It is showing the entrance/exit in operational condition. The second still is a sequence from a strike on the bulldozer working to re-open the same entrance/exit through removing all the rubble caused by an US-Israeli air strike.

I.e. actually, it’s the ‘bulldozer-campaign’ that’s dominating this aspect of the US-Israeli aggression on Iran.

For reasons explained above, that’s what really matters in this war - if for no other reason then because: regardless what else the US-Israelis (and especially the Israelis) ‘obliterate’ around Iran, and regardless how many civilians they massacre, the IRGCASF’s ‘missile cities’ remain intact, which also means that their ‘content’ - the Iranian ballistic missiles - remain intact. Which in turn means: this part of the campaign is already a failure.

Now mind: this Andimeshk missile city is one of ‘shallower’ installations of this kind. One with the least amount of rock protecting it...

Also mind: to achieve at least this - to block some 108 entrances/exits to Iran’s 27 missile cities (because since the last year, the majority of such facilities have four entrances/exits) - the US-Israel have wasted more precision weapons in one month than the USA can manufacture in three years, and that using materials (see: ‘rare earths’) 90% of which can only be sourced from the one country the USA may need to fight next: the PRC.

In this regards, and considering what I’ve explained in the following video already three weeks ago, it’s so that after four weeks of this war there is no evidence that anything has changed at all:

While the above-mentioned is going on ‘on the Iran’s ballistic missile front’, there are funny things to monitor ‘on the Iran’s attack UAVs front’, too. So, for example, the ‘Western’ Experten can’t stop babbling about ‘Russians supplying targeting intelligence to Iran’, and, meanwhile, ‘Russians (also) supplying attack-UAVS’. So far, haven’t seen any trace of evidence for either of these claims. Sure, ‘one should never say never’, but: for reasons explained again and again, I doubt I’m ever going to see any evidence.

On the contrary: all I’ve got to see so far, is that the Russians are about 10 years behind the Iranians in regards of development of attack-UAVs and resulting military strategy. At most, my impression is that if there is a ‘know-how and technology transfer’ (and, therefore, also an ‘intelligence transfer’), then this is flowing in the opposite direction - from Iran, to Russia (which, actually, I strongly doubt, too).

The last few days, photos emerged from Ukraine, showing electronics found in a few of Russian attack-UAVs (apparently: Geran-2s, which are a derivative of the Iranian Shahed-136): correspondingly, the Russians are ‘now’ equipping these with passive radar homing heads - so these can target (for example) Ukrainian early warning radars and fire-control radars for Ukrainian surface-to-air missiles.

Erm… I’m - terribly - sorry to disappoint you, everybody, ‘but’: the IRGC had its first Shaheds equipped with passive radar homing heads already back in 2017. Nine years ago. Unsurprisingly, it has used these with significant success, the last four weeks. Should there be any doubts: ask US Army radar-operators and US Air Force AWACS-operators deployed in the Middle East.

BTW, already back then - in 2017 - the systems installed into Iranian Shaheds were more advanced than what are the Russians installing into their Geran-2s nowadays. Because the Russians were lacking the wisdom and vision, and thus never cared to develop the ability to manufacture or import the necessary electronics.

Of course, estimeed reader, you’re free to insist on prejudice like, ‘this is impossible’ - just like all the highly-educated, superbly eloquent, and brilliant Experten are still regularly doing: that the Iranians need Russians to tell them what, where, when and how to aim - and that despite obvious evidence of the contrary.

Though if so, then I cannot but recommend paying attention about this ‘photo’, ‘providing the proof’ that the CENTCOM has successfully patched-up one of its two E-3Gs knocked out by such Iranian weapons:

Finally - and because yes, ‘The Devil is in the Details’: few words about the issue of IQ47’s ‘negotiations’ with Iran…

There are true ‘armies’ of Experten out there that cannot stop reporting about this issue and explaining the possible outcomes. Is IQ47 going to do this, is he going to do that? Has he got the stomach for a ground operation? Is he serious with negotiations? Is he going to order the ‘boots on the ground’…?

So much so, my impression is that this topic is discussed and reported up and down all over the mainstream- and the social-media, 24/7.

On the contrary: I cannot but wonder about all this uproar. For lots of reasons. The most important of which are such like the backgrounds of top IRGC-characters now in power, not to talk about the actual state of US-Israeli, and thus US-Israeli-Iranian relations. See here.

Some Experten are almost in delirium of happiness while explaining that, actually, the USA have ‘nobody in Iran’ to negotiate with, because ‘the USA’ - actually: it was Israel - has liquidated all the top political- and military-decision-makers in the country. Along that thesis, those replacing Khamenei & Co KG GesmbH AG would not matter: because they do not have the necessary power and influence. Or, because in reaction to Israel’s assassination of top Iranian leaders, the IRGC ‘switched to guerrilla’ and to its Mosaic Doctrine of Defence, and thus broke up into some 37 different political- and military entities…

In the real world, and as explained a few days ago, the (US-)Israeli de-capitation of Khamenei (and his ‘guard’) - and that amid ongoing and (highly) promising negotiations mediated by Oman - has swept away the ‘cautious’ from power in Iran. It brought to power the likes of Mojtaba, Vahidi, and Ghalibaf: it installed the ultra-Khomeinist, the most extremist ‘wing’ of the IRGC in power: the group of people that know no restraint (that, at earlier times was still exercised by Khamenei).

Mind: while Mojtaba Khamenei was a chief-of-staff and the money-man already for years, especially Vahid and Ghalibaf - both of whom have joined the then still ‘future’ IRGC already back in 1978-1979, i.e. before the ‘IRGC’ was officially established as such (on 1 January 1981), and while still teenagers of 17-19 years age - have worked themselves up the chain of command through such acts like summary executions during the Kurdish uprising in Iran of 1979, like this one (you can read the full story of that photo here):

…’what a surprise then’, 40 years later, they’ve had no problem ordering similar - though much more massive - massacres of protesters on the streets of Iranian cities (even more so considering a number of these protests was, definitely, instigated by the Israeli Mossad).

Shall I then go on with a list of all the possible super-turbo-IRGC-offensives during the war with Iraq, in which some 250,000+ servicemen of the IRGC were killed, gased or else - and that on command of Vahid, Ghalibaf, and similar characters?

Now, please, sit down, lean back in your chair, take a deep breath - and think. You, seriously, expect such people to ‘negotiate’?

Even more importantly: what shall they negotiate about - with IQ47?

Mind that characters like Vahidi and Ghalibaf are both well-educated and well-informed. Like their ‘predecessors’ in the positions they’re occupying nowadays, since decades already they’re running careful studies of Iran’s geo-strategic position, but also the power-structures in the USA. You might prefer to ignore the AIPAC’s - and thus Israel’s - influence in the US Senate, the US Congress, and, lately, in IQ47’s administration (again: explained here).

Feel free to explain it away with ‘anti-Semitism’.

But, they - Vahidi, Ghalibaf etc. - are never going to do so.

Therefore, from their point of view, it’s entirely pointless to ‘negotiate’ with IQ47. Because they know, if at all, actually they would have to negotiate with Israel. And, they know - they and all of us have had it clearly demonstrated, again and again over the last 14 years - Israel is not negotiating: it’s assassinating negotiators, and then cheering the results.

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This text is published with the permission of the author. First published here.